基于多元数据的公路客流特征研究——以宁波市为例

Research on Characteristics of Highway Passenger Flow Based on Multivariate Data—Taking Ningbo City as an Example

公路运输方式长期以来在城市对外出行中占据主导地位,但近几年总体面临客流效益急剧下滑、竞争乏力的困境,为公路枢纽的规划布局和运营管理带来了困惑。本文结合手机信令、部门调研和枢纽问卷调查等多元手段,获得公路客流的基础数据并进行分析。基于交通模型分析公路方式与市域轨道之间的竞争关系。指出,公路运输方式具有明显的边界效应,公共交通接驳系统的完善程度对于边界效应具有显著影响。最后,建议在公路枢纽的规划布局和运营组织中应当统筹好与高铁和市域轨道之间的关系,不断完善公共交通接驳系统。

The road transport mode has long dominated the city’s external travel. However, in recent years, it has faced the dilemma of sharp decline in passenger flow efficiency and weak competition, which has brought confusion to the planning, layout and operation management of highway hubs. This paper combines mobile phone signaling, departmental investigation and pivot questionnaires to obtain basic data of highway passenger flow and analyze it. Based on the traffic model, the competition relationship between the highway mode and the municipal rail transit is analyzed. It is pointed out that the road transportation mode has obvious boundary effect, and the perfection of the public transportation connection system has a significant impact on the boundary effect. Finally, it is suggested that the relationship between the high-speed rail and the municipal rail transit should be co-ordinated in the planning, layout and operation organization of the highway hub, and the public transportation connection system should be continuously improved.