基于疫情演化的应急医疗物资调度优化研究

Research on Emergency Medical Materials Scheduling Optimization Based on Epidemic Evolution

从疫情演化数据更新的视角,结合SIR传染病扩散模型,考虑应急医疗物资分配的公平性原则和最大效用的原则,构建依据随疫情演化的时变需求预测模型以及调度方案的多目标优化模型,合理决策各周期每个疫区点的应急医疗物资调度方案。结果表明:结合疫情演化的动态变化,可以实现应急医疗物资的需求预测与配送之间的有效协同,能够为疫情应急管理提供有益的决策参考。

Considering the principle of fairness and the principle of maximum utility in the distribution of emergency medical materials, a SIR epidemic model was proposed from the perspective of epidemic evolution data updating, and a time-varying demand forecasting model and the multi-objective optimization model of the dispatching scheme was built to decide the distribution scheme of emergency medical materials in each epidemic area. The results show that the effective coordination between the demand forecast and distribution of emergency medical materials can be realized by combining the dynamic change of the epidemic situation evolution, the decision framework model can provide useful reference for emergency management of epidemic situation.