家庭人均收入、劳动合同签订与我国育龄女性二孩生育意愿——基于CGSS2015的实证分析

Family Per Capita Income, Labor Contract Signing and the Willingness of Chinese Women of Childbearing Age to Have a Second Child—Empirical Analysis Based on CGSS2015

在当今老龄化和少子化的社会背景下,本研究利用2015年中国综合社会调查资料(CGSS),结合家庭经济理论,采用二元logit模式,探讨了家庭收入和劳动合同签订对育龄妇女二孩生育愿望的影响。分析结果表明,我国目前的育龄女性二孩生育愿望仍然较低;家庭收入与二孩生育愿望相互之间具有显著的正相关。相对于未签订或仅签订无期限劳动合同的群体,签订期限较长的劳动合同群体的二孩生育愿望更强。分析指出,实施主动适应老龄化策略,应该从完善收入分配和保障女性职工劳动合同权益两个方面出发。

Under the current social background of aging and fewer children, this study uses the 2015 China Comprehensive Social Survey (CGSS), combined with family economic theory, and adopts the binary logit model to explore the impact of family income and labor contract signing on the desire of women of childbearing age to have a second child. The analysis results show that the current desire of women of childbearing age to have a second child in China is still low;There is a significant positive correlation between family income and second child’s desire to produce. Compared with the group that has not signed or only signed an open-ended labor contract, the group that has signed a labor contract with a longer term has a stronger desire to have a second child. The analysis points out that the implementation of the strategy of actively adapting to aging should start from two aspects: improving income distribution and protecting the rights and interests of female employees in labor contracts.