基于灰色理论的上海市人口出生率的预测及研究

Prediction and Research of Population Birth Rate in Shanghai Based on Gray Theory

随着社会发展和经济增长,我国人口老龄化、少子化、性别失调的问题愈发加重,针对这些问题我国陆续出台了全面二孩、三孩政策,但二孩政策出台后并没有达到预期的效果,因此本文选取上海市2012年~2021年的出生人口数量作为数据基础,通过灰色预测模型对上海市未来十年(2022年~2031年)的出生人口数量进行预测,预测结果显示三孩政策出台后,上海市出生人口数量仍呈下降趋势,于是假定生育态度决定出生人口数量,通过问卷调查和相关分析对政策因素和经济状况做出分析可得,政策因素对于生育率的影响并不显著,经济状况则相比其他因素更能对出生率产生显著影响,针对这些问题文章中再次提出了提供生育津贴、住房补贴、育儿政策等相关建议措施,以缓解生育率下降等问题。

With the development of society and economic growth, China’s population aging, low birth rate, gender imbalance problems are becoming more and more aggravated;in response to these problems, China has successively introduced a comprehensive two-child, three-child policy, but the two-child policy after the introduction of the effect is not as large as expected, so this paper selects the number of births in Shanghai from 2012 to 2021 as the data basis, through the gray prediction model to predict the number of births in Shanghai in the next ten years (2022~2031). The prediction results show that after the introduction of the three-child policy, the number of births in Shanghai is still in a downward trend, so assuming that fertility attitudes determine the number of births, and it is possible to analyze policy factors and economic conditions through questionnaires and related analysis, the impact of policy factors on fertility is not significant, and economic conditions can have a significant impact on the birth rate compared to other factors, which again put forward the provision of birth allowances, housing subsidies, childcare policies and other related recommended measures in these questions to alleviate the decline in fertility and other problems.