灰色GM(1,1)模型在我国医疗卫生费用预测研究中的应用

Application of Gray GM(1,1) Model in the Study of Medical and Health Cost Prediction in China

目的:回顾新医改以来我国的医疗卫生费用支出,分析预测2021~2031年我国医疗卫生的总体支出情况,总结其变化趋势,以期为我国卫生部门制定科学的医疗保健政策与资金筹资策略提供可行的参考依据。方法:根据2015~2020年我国《卫生健康事业发展统计公报》,选取我国近年来相关的医疗卫生费用数据作为预测指标,在清楚地了解了我国医疗卫生费用的构成及变化趋势的基础上,通过构建灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,对我国医疗卫生的相关费用及构成的变化趋势进行预测。结果:2021~2031年,我国总体的医疗卫生费用支出呈快速上升趋势,从2020年的7217.5亿元增加至2030年的216744.22亿元,其中社会卫生支出占比从41.9%上升至44.74%,政府卫生支出占比从30.4%下降到30.14%,个人卫生支出从27.7%下降到25.14%。结论:医疗卫生总费用的筹资机制和支出比例更加合理,医疗卫生水平稳步上升,人民能够享受到的医疗卫生资源和服务更加全面优越,人民的生命安全得到进一步的保障。今后,我国需要更加重视人民的生命健康,进一步优化医疗卫生费用的筹资比例和控制其费用的合理支出,做到持续平稳地降低个人医疗卫生费用占比,减轻人民的医疗负担,全面提高人民的健康水平,保障我国医疗卫生服务事业的可持续发展。

Objective: To review the medical and health expenditure in China since the new medical reform, analyze and predict the overall expenditure of medical and health care in China from 2021 to 2031, and summarize its change trend, in order to provide a feasible reference for the formulation of scientific health care policies and funding strategies for China’s health departments. Methods: According to China’s “Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Health and Health Undertakings” from 2015 to 2020, the relevant medical and health cost data in China in recent years were selected as the prediction index, and on the basis of a clear understanding of the composition and change trend of China’s medical and health expenses, the gray GM(1,1) prediction model was constructed to predict the change trend of China’s medical and health-related costs and composition. Results: From 2021 to 2031, China’s overall medical and health expenditure showed a rapid upward trend, from 7217.5 billion yuan in 2020 to 21674.422 billion yuan in 2030, of which the proportion of social health expenditure increased from 41.9% to 44.74%, the proportion of government health expenditure decreased from 30.4% to 30.14%, and the personal health expenditure decreased from 27.7% to 25.14%. Conclusion: The financing mechanism and expenditure ratio of the total medical and health expenses are more reasonable, the medical and health level has steadily increased, the medical and health resources and services that the people can enjoy are more comprehensive and superior, and the people’s life safety has been further guaranteed. In the future, China needs to pay more attention to people’s lives and health, further optimize the financing ratio of medical and health expenses and control the reasonable expenditure of their expenses, so as to continuously and steadily reduce the proportion of personal medical and health expenses, reduce the people’s medical burden, comprehensively improve the people’s health level, and ensure the sustainable development of China’s medical and health services.