基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的北京市人口老龄化预测

Population Aging Prediction in Beijing Based on Gray GM(1,1) Model

当前,我国乃至全球人口老龄化形势严峻,老年人口数量逐年上升,我国面临人口老龄化的巨大挑战。人口老龄化的预测对城市未来发展具有重要参考价值,本文以北京市为例,从北京市统计局中获取2010~2020年老龄人口数据进行分析,根据灰色系统模型GM(1,1)的建模机理,建立灰色预测模型,对未来10年的北京市人口老龄化情况进行预测。

At present, the aging situation of China’s and even the world’s population is grim, the number of elderly population is increasing year by year, and China is facing the great challenge of population aging. The prediction of population aging has important reference value for the future development of the city. Taking Beijing as an example, this paper obtains the data of the elderly population from 2010 to 2020 from the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics for analysis, and establishes a gray prediction model according to the modeling mechanism of the gray system model GM(1,1) to predict the aging population in Beijing in the next 10 years.