租购并举背景下住房租赁市场关键参与者行为的演化博弈分析

An Evolutionary Game Analysis of the Behavior of Key Players in the Housing Rental Market under the Context of Rent-to-Buy Program

随着城市化进程的推进,中国大城市的人口流入不断增加,住房负担能力不足的“新市民”对租赁住房的需求日益强烈。然而,住房租赁市场供需结构不平衡,无法得到充分发展。因此,本研究从政府、企业和消费者三个主体出发,构建演化博弈模型。探究住房租赁市场中各主体如何实现最优协同,以及其互动演化过程和演化稳定均衡策略。研究结果表明:政府在初始阶段起主导作用;随着住房租赁市场的成熟,政府对住房租赁市场的干预逐渐减少,最终退出市场。此外,低补贴和低处罚不利于三个利益相关者最优解的演化。普惠金融、低成本融资对企业起到了积极的作用,随着贷款概率的提高,可以有效促进企业积极响应租赁政策。

As the process of urbanization advances, the inflow of people into China’s major cities continues to increase, and “new citizens” with insufficient housing affordability have an increasingly strong demand for rental housing. However, the supply and demand structure of the housing rental market is unbalanced and cannot be fully developed. Therefore, this study constructs an evolutionary game model from the perspective of the government, enterprises and consumers. It explores how each subject in the housing rental market realizes optimal synergy, as well as its interactive evolutionary process and evolutionary stable equilibrium strategy. The results of the study show that the government plays a dominant role in the initial stage;as the housing rental market matures, the government’s intervention in the housing rental market gradually decreases, and eventually withdraws from the market. In addition, low subsidies and penalties are not conducive to the evolution of optimal solutions for the three stakeholders. Inclusive finance and low-cost financing play a positive role for enterprises, and as the probability of loans increases, they can effectively promote enterprises to respond positively to the leasing policy.