农业生产总值结构变化及其贡献率分析——基于AS市农业面板数据

Analysis of Structural Changes and Contribution Rates in Gross Output Value of Agriculture —Based on the Agricultural Panel Data of AS City

主要运用描述性统计和结构贡献率理论,分析AS市农业生产总值中各部分的变化路径和对各个结构部分的贡献率进行分析,研究发现全市农业生产总值保持较高增速,明显高于全国同期水平,全市农业生产总值较期初提升至原来的3.75倍,年平均增长率达到18.61%。在2012年~2020年,AS市农业产业结构中种植业的产业的主体地位越发明显,所占比重越来越高,林业和副业则涨幅巨大,但仍然占比较少,牧业产业的占比逐年递减,在2013年~2020年,种植业的贡献率最高,依次为种植业的66.42%,牧业的15.61%,林业的8.57%,副业的5.8%,渔业的3.59%。渔业的增长贡献率变化不大,并且在2020年受到禁渔割船的影响全市范围呈负贡献。

Using descriptive statistics and structural contribution rate theory, this study analyzed the change path of the agricultural production value in AS city and the contribution rate to each structural component. The research found that the total agricultural production value in the city maintained a high growth rate, significantly higher than the national level during the same peri-od. The total agricultural production value in the city has increased by 3.75 times from the initial level, with an average annual growth rate of 18.61%. From 2012 to 2020, the dominance of the planting industry in the agricultural industry structure of AS city became more prominent, with its proportion increasing. The forestry and sideline industries also saw significant growth but still accounted for a smaller proportion. The proportion of the animal husbandry industry decreased year by year. From 2013 to 2020, the contribution rate of the planting industry was the highest, accounting for 66.42%, followed by animal husbandry at 15.61%, forestry at 8.57%, sideline industry at 5.8%, and fishing at 3.59%. The growth contribution rate of the fishing industry did not change much, and due to the impact of the fishing ban and boat reduction in 2020, it showed a negative contribution to the overall city.