数字经济增加值规模测算方法论的探讨——以江苏省为例

Research on the Methodology of Measurement and Contribution Rate of the Digital Economy Scale—Taking Jiangsu Province as an Example

为测算省际数字经济规模,本文对数字经济核心产业增加值和数字经济融合部门增加值进行测算,对于数字经济核心产业,以《数字经济及其核心产业统计分类(2021)》和《国民经济行业分类》两种分类标准,结合经济普查年鉴和投入产出表数据,对江苏省数字经济核心产业划分部门,分部门分情况利用生产法测算其规模;对于数字经济融合部门,将资本要素投入分为数字要素和非数字要素,考虑了数字要素投入的直接贡献和全要素生产率中属于数字要素投入的间接贡献,采用“两步法”从传统产业增加值中剥离出数字经济融合部门增加值。测算得到江苏省数字经济增加值规模由2018年的29885.26亿增长到2020年的44616.02亿,其中数字经济核心产业增加值占GDP比重由11.99%增长至13.58%,数字经济融合部门增加值占比由20.08%增长至29.85%。本文测算框架可以为其他省份测算提供方法参考,共同促进各省份数字经济的发展。

Under the condition of incomplete inter-provincial data, a method for estimating the scale of digital economy in Jiangsu Province based on the definition of which including basic part and integrated part is proposed, 2019 is 2509.035 billion yuan. Consider the scale of basic part as direct sum of the added value of high-tech industry;use Capital Investment’s Value to measure the level of ICT Capital Investment, that is, the scale of integration, and use Capital Investment’s Value Index to measure the change of ICT Capital Investment. When calculating Capital Rental Price, this article calculates Capital Return for different asset types in order to reduce measurement deviation. In addition, based on the Cobb-Douglas production function to construct a growth accounting framework, it is estimated that the contribution rate of the digital economy to economic growth in 2019 is 37.27%. The results show that the total amount of digital economy in Jiangsu Province is relatively large, but as a large economic province, the proportion of digital economy in GDP is relatively small. The growth of digital economy in Jiangsu Province is mainly due to the development of ICT industry. The growth rate of digital economy in NICT industry is relatively slow. Therefore, while grasping the contribution of ICT industry, it is necessary to increase the Digital Capital Investment in NICT industry. While expanding the scale, maintain the high-quality development of digital economy.