基于改进灰色GM(1,1)模型的广西第一产业经济预测

Economic Forecasting of Guangxi Primary Industry Based on Improved Grey GM(1,1) Model

建设农业强国,是党中央着眼全面建成社会主义现代化强国做出的战略部署,第一产业经济发展自然能为中国农业未来的发展趋势起到了指引作用。广西作为农业大区,分析和预测第一产业生产总值(GDP)发展数据对预测地区经济发展有很大的参考作用。为此提出了一种基于改进灰色GM(1,1)模型,对广西第一产业经济进行预测。为提高预测模型精度,对2022年广西第一产业GDP季度原始数据进行数据频率的转换,从低频数据转为高频数据,提出了一种新的改进GM(1,1)预测模型,描述其预测精度等级评价,并利用2022年广西第一产业第四季度的月度数据对改进后的模型进行训练。

Building a strong agricultural country is a strategic deployment made by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China with the aim of comprehensively building a socialist modernized country. The development of the primary industry economy naturally plays a guiding role in the future development of Chinese agriculture. As Guangxi is a major agricultural region, analyzing and predicting the development data of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the primary industry is of great reference value for predicting the economic development of the region. Therefore, a modified Grey GM(1,1) model is proposed to predict the primary industry economy in Guangxi. In order to improve the accuracy of the predictive model, the data frequency of the original quarterly GDP data for the primary industry in Guangxi in 2022 is transformed from low frequency to high frequency. A new modified GM(1,1) predictive model is proposed, and its prediction accuracy level is described and evaluated. The model is then trained using the monthly data for the fourth quarter of 2022 for the primary industry in Guangxi.