基于协整分析的广州市经济增长与就业关系研究

The Research on the Relationship between Economic Growth and Employment in Guangzhou Based on the Co-Integration Analysis

在我国经济取得快速发展的同时, 却存在着“高增长,低就业”的怪现象。在劳动力集聚的广州,是否存在相同的问题?本文运用协整方法来分析广州经济和就业之间的长期关系,并通过建立误差修正模型来探索经济和就业增长是否会显著影响未来经济和就业的变化关系。实证分析表明,就业和经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系。三大产业中,第三产业吸纳劳动力的能力最强,但广州市经济增长的就业效应并没有完全遵循“奥肯定律”。脉冲响应函数图表明就业对未来经济的拉动作用只具有短期效应。

When the economy grows fast, there exists a strange phenomenon that the unemployment rate remains high and even keeps rising. Is there the same feature in Guangzhou where a lot of labors gather? In this paper, by using co-integration method we analyze the long-term relationship be-tween economy and employment in Guangzhou, and through error correction model, we explore whether economic growth and employment growth will significantly affect the relationship between economic and employment in the future. From empirical study we found that a long-term equilibrium relationship indeed exists between economic growth and employment growth in Guangzhou City. The tertiary industry has the strongest ability of absorbing labor force among three major industries, but the effect on employment of Guangzhou economic growth does not follow the Okun's law. The impulse response function chart indicates that employment has short- term effect on the future economic.