广州和深圳经济发展状况的对比研究--基于三次产业结构与经济增长关系的实证分析

The Comparison of the Economic Development between Guangzhou and Shenzhen--Based on Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Three Industrial Structure and Economic Growth

自改革开放以来,广东省生产总值连续30多年居于我国各省生产总值的首位,广东省广州市亦是连续30多年稳居广东省各地区生产总值的首位。然而近年来广东省深圳市的经济发展特别迅速,尤其是在2014年一跃成为我国各地区人均生产总值的首位,2015年全市生产总值的增长幅度分别比全国和全省高2.0和0.9个百分百点。所以广州和深圳两地区经济发展状况的对比研究问题成为经济学界研究的热点。本文选取广州和深圳两地区的地区生产总值和三次产业的时间序列数据,从三次产业结构与经济增长的关系的角度,运用协整检验和误差修正模型,对广州和深圳两地区的经济发展状况进行对比研究,分析在广东省经济发展中,广州和深圳两市经济发展的比较优势。研究结果表明,广州和深圳两地区的地区生产总值与三次产业之间均存在长期均衡和短期平稳关系,且深圳在今后一段时期内仍有超越广州成为广东省经济发展主力的潜力。

Since reform and opening up, Guangdong province GDP has been the No. 1 in China for 30 years, during which time Guangzhou stands first place in gross regional product of the province. However, with rapid economic development of Shenzhen, it takes first place of regional per capital GDP of China in 2014. In 2015, the GDP growth of Shenzhen is higher than the national 2.0 percent and the province 0.9 percent respectively. So the comparison of the regional economic development between Guangzhou and Shenzhen becomes a hot issue in economic circle. This article selects regional GDP and three major industries series data of Guangzhou and Shenzhen respectively. From the perspective of the relationship between three major industries structure and economic growth, using cointegration test and error correction model, two region comparison research in the economic development of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, this paper analyzes the economic development in Guangdong province, and finds Guangzhou and Shenzhen’s comparative advantages. The results show that the two areas between GDP and three industrial exist long-term equilibrium and short-term stable relationship, and Shenzhen has the potential to surpass Guangzhou as the main engine of economic growth of Guangdong for some time.