摘要
针对2006至2013年珠三角九个城市的相关数据,首先,设计加权API模型以评价各地空气质量,再运用剂量–反应关系原理估算呼吸系统疾病住院率以评价各地发病状况,进而用相关系数定量分析各城市空气质量对呼吸系统疾病状况的影响效应。最后为改善疾病状况,应用多元回归分析和环境库兹涅茨曲线拐点理论对空气污染物治理的两个关键问题作进一步研究。结论:本地区大部分城市空气质量与呼吸系统疾病发病状况呈现较弱负相关关系,致病原因复杂,存在明显的区域差异性。此外,广州、珠海、江门三个城市导致发病的主要污染物是SO2,其他六个城市的主要污染物是PM10,并且本地区均已越过EKC拐点,因此治理空气污染不会影响经济发展。
Based on the related data of the nine cities in Pearl River Delta from 2006 to 2013, the article first builds a weighted API model to assess the regional air quality, and applies the principle of Dose- Response Relationship to estimate the hospitalization rate of Respiratory System Disease. Com-bining the obtained data, we use the Correlation Coefficient to analyze quantitatively the influence of air quality on the disease. In addition, in order to improve the status of disease, we carry on Multiple Regression Analysis and the Environmental Kuznets Curve to make a further research on the crucial problems of environmental governance. Finally, we draw the conclusions that the dis-ease is affected complicatedly apart from air quality in most of the cities in Pearl River Delta, and what causes the disease varies in regions obviously. Furthermore, respecting the cause of the dis-ease, the major pollutant of Guangzhou, Zhuhai and Jiangmen is SO2, while that is PM10 in other six cities. And governing the air pollution to lower the disease wouldn’t discourage the economic growth, because the economy of the region is over the EKC.
出处
《统计学与应用》
2016年第3期281-288,共8页
Statistical and Application
