基于Leslie模型的广西人口预测研究

The Research of Population Prediction in Guangxi by Leslie Model

未来人口变化是地区制定有关政策的重要依据。文章以广西2010年第六次全国人口普查数据为基础,利用Leslie矩阵模型,构建了广西2015~2030年间的人口规模和年龄结构预测模型,探索广西人口结构演变趋势,为制定社会经济发展规划及相关政策提供参考。

The future population change is the important basis for formulating region policies. Based on the data of 6th nationwide census of Guangxi in 2010, this paper constructed the prediction model of population size and age structure of Guangxi in 2015-2030 by Leslie matrix model, and explored the evolution trend of population structure, providing the reference for social and economic de-velopment planning and relevant policies.