基于大数据技术的政府财政收入预测—以贵州省为例

Government Revenue Forecast Based on Big Data Technology—Taking Guizhou Province as an Example

本文结合贵州财政收入的构成内容和结构特点,利用R软件,对收集的数据进行整理分析,找出影响地方财政收入的关键影响因素,使用传统时间序列和多元回归分析方法相结合,建立较为完整的地方财政收入预测模型,对贵州省2015~2016年的财政收入进行预测。

In this paper, combined with the content and the structure characteristics of fiscal revenue in Guizhou, using the R software, the data were collected and analyzed. The key factors affecting the local fiscal revenue were found out. Also, using traditional time series analysis and multiple re-gression analysis method, we established a more complete local fiscal revenue forecast model to forecast the fiscal revenue of Guizhou province in 2015-2016.