经济增长收敛问题的研究——以四川省为例

Research on the Convergence of Economic Growth—Taking Sichuan as an Example

本文以四川省为研究对象,运用空间计量经济学的相关理论和模型,并结合β收敛法分析了2005~2015年四川省经济增长的收敛性。研究发现,四川省21个地市级之间经济增长水平不存在显著的空间相关性,各地区经济发展受相邻地区经济发展水平的影响程度相对较弱;四川省的区域经济在研究的初期阶段呈现出收敛状态,而后开始有发散趋势。同时研究表明,经济发展好的城市对四川省整个经济的发展带动程度并不明显。

Taking Sichuan Province as the research object, this paper analyzes the convergence of eco-nomic growth in Sichuan province from 2005 to 2015 by using the theory and model of spatial econometrics with convergence method. The study finds that among the 21 municipal economic growth of Sichuan province has no significant spatial correlation, regional economic develop-ment is influenced by the level of economic development in adjacent areas is relatively weak. Regional economy in Sichuan province shows the convergence of the state in the early stage of research, and then begins to have divergent trend. At the same time, the research shows that the cities with good economic development are not obvious to the whole economic development of Sichuan province.