基于灰色预测及改进模型的留学人员预测

Forecast of Overseas Students Based on Grey Prediction and Improvement Model

本文通过对灰色预测模型与使用移动平均改进后的灰色预测模型进行比较和分析,建立了我国出国留学人数以及学成归国人数的拟合及预测模型。结果表明,在本实证分析中,使用移动平均法修匀的灰色预测模型预测效果优于单独使用灰色预测法。新方法提高拟合精度,便于国家有关机构获取出国留学以及归国人数的趋势,优先制定相关政策。

By comparing and analyzing the greyforecasting model with the improved grey forecasting model based on movingaverage,this paper establishes a fitting and forecasting model for the numberof overseas students and returnees in China.The results show that the greyprediction model smoothed by moving average method is better than the greyprediction method alone in this empirical analysis.The new method improves thefitting accuracy,facilitates relevant state institutions to obtain the trendof studying abroad and the number of returnees,and gives priority toformulating relevant policies.