改革开放40年中国经济增长源泉研究——基于新的核算数据

Study on the Sources of China’s Economic Growth in the Past 40 Years of the Reform and Opening-Up—Based on New Accounting Data

全要素生产率不仅反映经济增长的效率,还反映了经济增长的质量。随着我国经济进入新常态,提高经济增长质量势在必行,全要素生产率是恰当的指标。本文运用前沿生产函数法测度了1979~2018年的全要素生产率增长以及对经济增长的贡献。研究结果是:1) 1979~2018年间,全要素生产率增长对经济增长的贡献达到了42.67%,中国经济呈现资本和科技双轮驱动的特征;2) 改革开放初期和中期,全要素生产率增长迅速,技术进步是经济增长的重要源泉,2008年以后中国经济呈现投资驱动特征;3) 2008年以后,全要素生产率的下降源于投资过快增长,投资质量下降和制度创新不足。中国需要改善投资结构,提高投资质量,提高自主创新能力,提高全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献。

Total factor productivity (TFP) reflects not only the efficiency but also the quality of economic growth. As China's economy enters a new normal, it is imperative to improve the quality of eco-nomic growth, and then TFP is the appropriate indicator. This paper measures TFP growth and its contribution to economic growth from 1979 to 2017 by using frontier production function method. The results are: 1) Between 1979 and 2018, the contribution of TFP growth to economic growth reached 42.67%. China's economy is characterized by capital and technology. 2) In the early and middle stages of reform and opening-up, TFP grew rapidly, and technological progress was an important source of economic growth. After 2008, China's economy showed investment-driven characteristics. 3) The decline of TFP resulted from the excessive growth of investment, the decline of investment quality and the lack of institutional innovation, after 2008. China needs to improve its investment structure, improve the quality of investment and enhance its capacity for independent innovation. It is even more necessary to increase the contribution of total factor productivity to economic growth.