基于季节效应ARIMA模型对贵州省城镇新增就业人数的预测

Prediction of Newly-Increased Employment in Urban Areas of Guizhou Province Based on Seasonal Effect ARIMA

“脱贫攻坚”是一场长时间的战斗,脱贫攻坚重点工作扎实推进,其中贫困县较多的贵州省扶贫成果尤为显著。选取2002年至2019年贵州省城镇就业增长人数的月度数据进行时间序列分析,建立季节乘积的ARIMA模型,并运用所建模型对2020年贵州省城镇就业增长人数进行预测,进行稳健性检验以说明预测的可靠性。预测结果表明2020年城镇就业新增人口仍将保持长期增长趋势。

“Poverty alleviation” is a long-term battle, and the key tasks of poverty alleviation have been steadily advanced. Among them, Guizhou Province, which has more impoverished counties, has achieved remarkable results in poverty alleviation. This paper selects monthly data of the number of urban employment growth in Guizhou Province from 2002 to 2019 for time series analysis, establishes a seasonal product ARIMA model, and uses the built model to predict the number of urban employment growth in Guizhou Province in 2020, conducting a robustness test to illustrate reliability of predictions. The forecast results indicate that the newly-increased urban employment population in 2020 will still maintain seasonality and growth.