基于GM(1,1)模型的秦皇岛市老龄化程度预测

Prediction of Aging Degree in Qinhuangdao City Based on the GM(1,1) Model

2019年,秦皇岛市60岁以上老年人口有69.68万人,占总人口的23.12%,高于全国、全省的平均水平,老龄化问题非常明显。本文利用2010~2019年秦皇岛市60岁以上老年人口及总人口数据,运用灰色GM(1,1)模型,分别预测了2020~2030年秦皇岛市60岁以上老年人口数及老龄化系数。预测结果表明未来十年秦皇岛市60岁以上老年人口数量将依然保持逐年上升,老龄化系数同时也在持续上涨。最后,从预测结果出发,为秦皇岛市进入老龄化社会后相关部门制定相关政策提供建议。

In 2019, there were more than 690 thousand people over 60 years old in Qinhuangdao, which accounts for 23.12% of the total population and is higher than the national and provincial average level. And the aging problem is very obvious. Based on the data of the elderly population over 60 years old and the total population in Qinhuangdao city from 2010 to 2019, using the grey GM(1,1) model prediction methods, this paper forecasts the number of the elderly population over 60 years old and the aging coefficient in Qinhuangdao city from 2020 to 2030. The prediction results show that the number of people over 60 years old in Qinhuangdao will increase year by year in the next decade, and the aging coefficient will also continue to rise. Finally, this paper provides suggestions for relevant departments to formulate relevant policies after Qinhuangdao enters an aging society based on the prediction results.