我国收入差距时空分异及驱动力研究——基于省级面板数据的GWR模型分析

Research on Spatial-Temporal Differentiation and Driving Force of Income Disparity in China—Analysis of GWR Model Based on Provincial Panel Data

基于1996~2019年我国省际面板数据,利用地区总体基尼系数度量各地区收入差距水平,通过莫兰指数和GWR模型分别分析收入差距及其驱动力的空间异质性。结果表明:1) 省域之间的收入差距水平具有显著的空间正相关性,随着经济的增长这一特征愈发明显。2) 我国收入差距水平呈空间集聚态势,两级分布特征明显。高–高型集聚区域集中于西北内陆地区,低–低型集聚区域集中在华北地区。3) 人力资本水平、产业结构升级水平、经济增长水平、基础设施水平和经济全球化水平对收入差距存在驱动作用,具有显著的空间异质性,呈现较明显的圈层递减分布格局。基于此,提出减少我国地区收入差距的政策建议。

Based on inter-provincial panel data in China from 1996~2019, the overall regional Gini coefficient is used to measure the level of income disparity in each region, and the spatial heterogeneity of income disparity and its drivers are analyzed by Moran index and GWR model, respectively. The results show that: 1) The level of income disparity between provinces and regions has a significant positive spatial correlation, and this feature becomes more and more obvious with economic growth. 2) China’s income disparity level is spatially clustered, with obvious characteristics of two-level distribution. The high-high clustering area is concentrated in the northwest inland area, while the low-low clustering area is concentrated in northern China. 3) The level of human capital, the level of industrial structure upgrading, the level of economic growth, the level of infrastructure and the level of economic globalization have a driving effect on the income gap, with significant spatial heterogeneity and a more obvious pattern of decreasing circle distribution. Based on this, policy recommendations to reduce the regional income gap in China are proposed.