云南省城镇居民消费结构影响因素分析及预测

Analysis and Prediction of Influencing Factors of Consumption Structure of Urban Residents in Yunnan Province

本文聚焦于云南省城镇居民消费结构,通过定性和定量相结合的方法对城镇居民消费结构进行影响因素分析,在定量分析中借助拓展后的LA/AIDS模型,最后通过灰色系统预测GM(1,1)模型和ARIMA模型分别对其进行预测。研究显示:收入、人口结构、财政支出、城镇化都对居民消费结构有显著的影响,城镇居民的消费结构正向着高层次、享受型的模式转变。

This paper focuses on the consumption structure of urban residents in Yunnan province, and analyzes the influencing factors of the consumption structure of urban residents by combining qualitative and quantitative methods. In the quantitative analysis, the expanded LA/AIDS model is used, and the grey system GM(1,1) model and ARIMA model are used to predict the consumption structure of urban residents respectively. The research shows that income, population structure, financial expenditure and urbanization all have a significant impact on the consumption structure of residents, and the consumption structure of urban residents is changing to a high-level and enjoyment-oriented model.