基于线性回归模型对我国的GDP增长进行实证分析

Empirical Analysis on China’s GDP Growth Based on Linear Regression Model

随着经济的快速增长,人民生活也越来越丰富。那要衡量一个国家或地区经济状况和发展水平,最重要的指标就是GDP,也是国名经济核算的核心指标。本文以计算GDP的支出法为基础,利用我国1978~2019年样本数据进行实证检验,选取4个重要变量来衡量研究GDP的增长,分别是固定资产投资、社会消费品总额、政府财政支出和净出口。通过构建多元线性回归模型,消除多重共线性,利用Eviews软件修正,进而确定我国GDP受到社会消费品总额和净出口两个因素的显著影响,并提出相应的建议。

With the rapid growth of economy, people’s life is richer and richer. The most important indicator to measure the economic situation and development level of a country or region is GDP, which is also the core indicator of the economic accounting of a country’s name. Based on the expenditure method of calculating GDP, this paper uses the sample data of our country from 1978 to 2019 to test empirically, selects four important variables to measure the growth of GDP, they are investment in fixed assets, total social consumer goods, government expenditure and net exports. By constructing a multiple linear regression model, eliminating Multicollinearity, and using the Eviews software to revise it, we determined that our GDP is significantly affected by both total social consumption goods and net exports, and put forward the corresponding suggestions.