基于扩展引力模型的广西出口贸易潜力分析

Export Trade Potential Analysis of Guangxi Based on Extended Gravity Model

作为“一带一路”有机衔接的重要门户,广西与其沿线国家出口贸易的潜力研究至关重要。论文创新性地引入扩展的引力模型,利用广西与11个“一带一路”沿线国家2004~2020年的出口贸易等面板数据,对广西出口贸易的影响因素和出口贸易潜力进行实证分析。发现贸易伙伴国人口、广西人口、广西GDP、贸易伙伴国是否为WTO成员国及是否与中国签订FTA均对广西出口贸易总额产生正面影响,而贸易伙伴国GDP对贸易的依存度不高。从静态的角度来看,广西对“一带一路”沿线国家的出口贸易潜力尚未被完全开发,仍有很大发展空间。有半数亚洲和欧洲国家属于“潜力再造型”市场,有近半数都属于“潜力巨大型”市场,有少部分亚洲国家属于“潜力开拓型”市场。从动态的角度来看,广西对意大利的出口贸易是由潜力再造型向潜力巨大型转变,对新加坡的出口贸易由潜力再造型向潜力开拓型转变,对印度尼西亚、泰国、菲律宾、南非这些国家出口贸易维持潜力巨大型。广西应在稳定与这些国家的良好贸易往来关系的前提下,根据各国贸易潜力类型,探索建设特色产业,积极开发合作空间。研究内容拓展了扩展的引力模型在省域出口贸易潜力的应用深度,为广西出口贸易的发展潜力规划、决策提供理论参考。

As an important portal for the organic connection of “One Belt and One Road”, it is very important to study the potential of export trade between Guangxi and the countries along the route. This paper innovatively introduces the extended gravity model and uses panel data of export trade between Guangxi and 11 countries along the “One Belt and One Road” from 2004 to 2020 to make an empirical analysis of the influencing factors and export trade potential of Guangxi. It is found that the population of the trading partner country, the population of Guangxi, the GDP of Guangxi, whether the trading partner country is a member of WTO and whether it has signed the FTA with China all have a positive impact on the total export trade of Guangxi, while the GDP of the trading partner country is not highly dependent on trade. From the static point of view, the export potential of Guangxi to the countries along the “One Belt and One Road” has not been fully exploited, and there is still a lot of room for development. Half of Asian and European countries belong to the “potential re-modeling” market, nearly half belong to the “great potential” market, and a small number of Asian countries belong to the “potential pioneering” market. From the dynamic point of view, the export trade of Guangxi to Italy is transformed from potential re-modeling to potential huge potential type, the export trade of Guangxi to Singapore is transformed from potential re-modeling to potential pioneering type, and the export trade of Guangxi to Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, South Africa and other countries is maintained as potential huge type. On the premise of stabilizing good trade relations with these countries, Guangxi should explore the construction of characteristic industries and actively develop cooperation space according to the trade potential types of each country. The research content expands the application depth of the extended gravity model in the export trade potential of the province, and provides theoretical reference for Guangxi’s export trade potential development planning and decision-making.