基于多项式回归模型的中国城乡收入差距变化特征与地区差异分析

The Variation Characteristics and Regional Differences of Urban-Rural Income Gap in China Based on Polynomial Regression Model

为更好的探究中国城乡收入差距的变化特征与地区差异,本文建立多项式回归模型,将影响城乡收入差距的因素划分为内部因素和外部因素分别作为中介变量和控制变量,将城乡收入差距作为被解释变量,利用主成分分析法对数据进行处理降维得到代表数字经济的指数作为解释变量,采用泰尔指数测算城乡收入差距,以定量的方式分析中国城乡收入差距的变化特征以及地区之间的差异。研究发现:内部因素和外部因素均与城乡收入差距存在显著相关性,我国城乡收入差距在波动中呈逐步扩大的趋势并体现出阶段性特征,城乡收入差距的地区差异较为明显,地区偏远、环境恶劣、经济发展落后、乡村振兴战略实施难度较大的西部地区以及农业在当地所占的经济比重较高、经济欠发达的中部地区城乡收入差距相对大,而经济较发达、平原广阔、物产丰富、交通便利、农业人口所占比重较低的东部地区城乡收入差距相对较小,并且,西部地区城乡收入差距扩大的速度较快,中部地区的城乡收入差距在不断缩小。

In order to better explore the changing characteristics and regional differences of China’s urban-rural income gap, this paper establishes a polynomial regression model. The factors affecting the urban-rural income gap are divided into internal factors and external factors as mediating variables and control variables respectively. The urban-rural income gap is used as the explained variable, and the principal component analysis method is used to process the data to reduce the dimension to obtain the index representing the digital economy as the explanatory variable. The Theil index is used to measure the urban-rural income gap, and the changing characteristics of China’s urban-rural income gap and the differences between regions are analyzed quantitatively. The study found that there is a significant correlation between internal factors and external factors and the urban-rural income gap. The urban-rural income gap in China is gradually expanding in the fluctuation and reflects the stage characteristics. The regional differences in the urban-rural income gap are more obvious. The western regions with remote areas, harsh environment, backward economic development, and difficulty in implementing the rural revitalization strategy, as well as the central regions with high proportion of agriculture in the local economy and underdeveloped economy, have a relatively large urban-rural income gap, while the eastern regions with more developed economy, vast plains, rich products, convenient transportation, and low proportion of agricultural population have a relatively small urban-rural income gap. The income gap between urban and rural areas in the western region is expanding faster, and the income gap between urban and rural areas in the central region is shrinking.