北京市消费升级与产业升级协同机制研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

Research on the Synergy Mechanism of Consumption Upgrade and Industrial Upgrade in Beijing—Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

消费升级和产业升级存在着密不可分的互动协同关系。本文基于北京市1978~2019年数据,借助stata16.0软件运用VAR模型对北京市消费升级和产业升级的协同机制关系进行了实证分析研究。研究表明,北京市消费升级和产业升级之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,总的来说是相互影响、相互作用的;北京市消费升级与产业升级之间具有双向的正向显著影响,且影响程度随时间增加而增强;在贡献度方面,产业升级对消费升级的影响优于消费升级对产业升级的影响。

There is an inseparable interactive and synergistic relationship between consumption upgrading and industrial upgrading. Based on the data of Beijing from 1978 to 2019, this paper uses the stata16.0 software to use the VAR model to conduct an empirical analysis and research on the relationship between Beijing’s consumption upgrading and industrial upgrading. Research has shown that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between consumption upgrade and industrial upgrade in Beijing, which in general influences and interacts with each other;there is a two-way positive influence between consumption upgrading and industrial upgrading in Beijing, and the degree of influence increases with time. In terms of contribution, the impact of industrial upgrading on consumption upgrading is better than the impact of consumption upgrading on industrial upgrading.