天津市金融影响进出口贸易的动态关系研究——基于VAR模型

A Study on the Dynamic Relationship of Financial Influence on Import and Export Trade in Tianjin—Based on VAR Model

本文旨在研究天津金融对进出口贸易的动态关系,并以VAR模型为基础进行分析。通过构建VAR模型探究天津市金融因素(进出口总额、金融机构数量、中外资金融机构存款余额、中外资金融机构贷款余额)与进出口贸易之间的关联。通过脉冲响应和方差分解从而揭示金融对进出口贸易的影响机制和程度,为相关政策制定者和决策者提供重要的政策参考,以促进天津市的进出口贸易发展。最终根据结论给出相应的建议。

This paper aims to study the dynamic relationship between Tianjin Finance and import and export trade, and analyze it based on VAR model. This paper explores the correlation between financial factors (total import and export volume, number of financial institutions, deposit balance and loan balance of Chinese and foreign-funded financial institutions) and import and export trade in Tianjin by constructing VAR model. Through impulse response and variance decomposition, the influence mechanism and degree of finance on import and export trade are revealed, which provides important policy references for relevant policy makers and decision makers to promote the development of import and export trade in Tianjin. Finally, the corresponding suggestions are given according to the conclusion.