数字经济推动产业结构高级化对高质量就业的影响及预测研究

Research on the Influence and Forecast of Digital Economy Promoting the Upgrading of Industrial Structure on High-Quality Employment

中国式现代化是全体人民共同富裕的现代化,而促进劳动者高质量就业是扎实推进共同富裕的重要途径。近年来,随着数字经济的发展,我国产业结构已经发生了根本性的变化,这对就业环境带来了深远的影响。在此背景下,本文利用全国各省市2011~2022年的相关数据以及相关资料,建立数字经济以及高质量就业评价指标体系,逐步探究数字经济如何推动产业结构高级化影响高质量就业。在研究方法上,本文首先利用词云图和LDA建模文本分析高质量就业现状,发现数字经济与产业结构的关系;构建中介模型,把产业结构高级化作为中介变量,探究其对数字经济和高质量就业之间产生的中介效应,并且利用LSTM神经网络预测未来五年各省市高质量就业状况。基于上述研究,本文得出以下结论:数字经济对产业结构高级化贡献较大;数字经济通过推动产业结构高级化影响高质量就业具有显著的中介效应,未来五年北上广等城市在高质量就业水平发展上依旧具有明显的优势。基于此,本文最后针对性地提出一些相关建议。

Chinese-style modernization means common prosperity for all people, and promoting high-quality employment for workers is an important way to solidly promote common prosperity. In recent years, with the development of digital economy, the industrial structure of China has had a funda-mental change, which has brought a profound impact on the employment environment. In this con-text, by using the relevant data and information from 2011 to 2022 of various provinces and cities across the country, this paper establishes the digital economy and high-quality employment evalu-ation index system, and gradually explores how the digital economy promotes the upgrading of in-dustrial structure to affect high-quality employment. In terms of research methods, this paper first analyzes the current situation of high-quality employment by using the word cloud map and LDA modeling text, and finds the relationship between digital economy and industrial structure;the in-termediary model is constructed, taking the upgrading of industrial structure as the intermediary variable, to explore its mediating effect on the digital economy and high-quality employment and predict the high-quality employment in each province and city in the next five years by using LSTM neural network. Based on the above research, this paper draws the following conclusions: under the digital economy, the upgrading of industrial structure contributes more;digital economy has a sig-nificant intermediary effect on high-quality employment by promoting the upgrading of industrial structure, and cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou still have obvious advantages in the development of high-quality employment in the next five years. Based on this, this paper finally puts forward some relevant suggestions.