基于ARIMA模型对浙江省粮食产量的研究

Research on Grain Production in Zhejiang Province Based on ARIMA Model

认真贯彻落实党的二十大精神,高水平推进乡村全面振兴,加快建设高效生态农业强省,推动中国式农业农村现代化先行。从根本上说,农业的高质量发展关键在于农业绿色发展。为了发挥浙江省绿色农业发展的示范作用,本报告基于农业高质量发展的新要求,分析了改革开放以来,粮食产量的发展趋势,并采用ARIMA法对浙江省历年粮食产量进行了研究,建立了时间序列模型。本研究运用ARIMA时间序列分析方法,对浙江省多年的粮食产量数据进行了深入研究。研究的目的在于探讨浙江省粮食产量的变化规律,为未来的产量预测提供可靠依据。通过建立ARIMA模型,成功地捕捉到了产量数据的长期趋势。研究结果表明,ARIMA模型在浙江省粮食产量预测中表现出了出色的准确性和可信度,使决策者能够更精准地规划农业生产和政策制定。这项研究对于浙江省粮食产量的管理和规划具有积极的实际意义。它为农业生产者提供了更好的生产计划,有助于政府更好地应对粮食供应和需求的波动。总之,ARIMA模型为浙江省粮食产量领域的决策制定提供了重要的参考依据,有助于确保粮食供应的稳定性和可持续性,为促进浙江省的粮食生产与管理提供了有力支持。

Conscientiously implement the spirit of the 20th Party Congress, promote the comprehensive revi-talization of the countryside at a high level, accelerate the construction of a strong province of effi-cient and ecological agriculture, and promote the modernization of Chinese agriculture and rural areas first. Fundamentally speaking, the key to high-quality agricultural development lies in green agricultural development. In order to exert the demonstration role of green agricultural develop-ment in Zhejiang Province, this report analyzes the development trend of grain production since the reform and opening up based on the new requirements of high-quality agricultural development, and uses ARIMA method to study the grain production of Zhejiang Province in all years and estab-lish a time series model. This study employed the ARIMA time series analysis method to conduct an in-depth examination of multi-year grain production data in Zhejiang Province. The primary objec-tive of this research was to uncover the patterns of grain production variations in Zhejiang Province, providing a reliable foundation for future production forecasts. By establishing an ARIMA model, we successfully captured the long-term trends in the production data. The research outcomes demon-strated the outstanding accuracy and credibility of the ARIMA model in predicting grain production in Zhejiang Province, enabling decision-makers to refine agricultural production planning and poli-cy formulation. This study holds substantial practical significance for the management and planning of grain production in Zhejiang Province. It offers improved production planning for agricultural producers and aids the government in better managing fluctuations in grain supply and demand. In summary, the ARIMA model serves as a critical reference for decision-making in the field of grain production in Zhejiang Province, contributing to the assurance of stability and sustainability in grain supply. It provides robust support for advancing grain production and management in Zhejiang Province.