基于ARIMA乘法模型预测21世纪海上丝绸之路国家贸易额指数变化趋势

Predicting the Trend of Trade Volume Index Changes in 21st Century Maritime Silk Road Countries Based on ARIMA Multiplication Model

“一带一路”倡议是促进国际贸易和世界现代化发展的重要途径,顺应中国式现代化发展模式和经济全球化的时代热潮,极大地促进沿线地区的经济贸易发展。本文从定性和定量两个角度展开分析,基于21世纪海上丝绸之路2016年1月至2023年11月的国家贸易额指数数据,通过测试集验证模型有效性后建立ARIMA季节乘法模型对未来五个月的贸易额指数值进行合理预测,为海上丝路所带来的经济效益提供理论支撑。结果表明,海上丝路贸易额指数未来五个月将呈现先升后降再回升的小幅度波动,综合上述研究为中国及一带一路沿线地区未来发展提出有价值的结论与建议。

The Belt and Road Initiative is an important way to promote international trade and the develop-ment of world modernization. It conforms to the development model of Chinese path to moderniza-tion and the trend of economic globalization, and greatly promotes the economic and trade devel-opment of regions along the Belt and Road. The text analyzes from both qualitative and quantitative perspectives, based on the national trade volume index data of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road from January 2016 to November 2023. After verifying the effectiveness of the model through a test set, an ARIMA seasonal multiplication model is established to reasonably predict the trade volume index values for the next five months, providing theoretical support for the economic benefits brought by the Maritime Silk Road. The results show that the maritime Silk Road trade volume in-dex will fluctuate slightly in the next five months, rising first, then falling, and then rising again. Based on the above research, valuable conclusions and suggestions are put forward for the future development of China and the regions along the Belt and Road.