基于ARIMA模型和残差自回归模型的广东省鸡蛋价格分析及预测

Analysis and Prediction of Egg Price in Guangdong Province Based on ARIMA Model and Auto-Regressive Model

本文基于中国畜牧业年鉴的广东省鸡蛋价格,构建了ARIMA模型和残差自回归模型。根据模型理论依据、评价指标,例如拟合优度、均方误差、平均绝对误差、信息准则等选择最优模型预测鸡蛋价格。本文得出最优的预测模型是乘积季节模型。利用该模型测出广东省未来的鸡蛋价格,同时对政府、养殖者、投资者和消费者四大主体提出相应的实际建议。本文不仅丰富了鸡蛋价格预测的理论基础,而且为相关主体的决策提供了有价值的参考依据。

Based on the egg price of Guangdong province in the China Animal Husbandry Yearbook, the ARIMA model and the auto-regressive model are constructed in this paper. According to the theoretical basis of the model and evaluation indicators, such as goodness of fit, mean square error, mean absolute error and information criteria, the optimal model is selected to predict egg price. The optimal forecasting model is the product season model . The model is used to measure the future price of eggs in Guangdong Province, and some practical suggestions are put forward for the government, breeders, investors and consumers. This paper not only enriched the theoretical basis of egg price forecasting but also provided a valuable reference for the decision-making of related subjects.