基于时间序列预测模型的中国城乡收入差距预测研究

A Study on Forecasting the Urban-Rural Income Gap in China Based on Time Series Forecasting Model

我国城乡收入差距较大,这一现象影响社会稳定、制约经济增长、阻碍共同富裕、加剧教育资源不均、影响公共服务均衡性。研究我国城乡收入差距对于推动经济社会发展、实现共同富裕、提高社会公平性、优化政策制定以及维护社会稳定等方面具有重要意义。通过深入研究,可以为政府和社会各界提供科学的决策参考,促进城乡协调发展,实现更加和谐的社会环境。已知我国城乡收入比远高于美国等OECD成员国的城乡收入比(1.25以下),为了深入研究我国城乡收入差距发展趋势,本文通过建立数学模型研究,结合相关文献数据且基于时间序列预测模型的模型建立、模型求解去预测什么时限我国可达到OECD成员国城乡收入比的基本水平。在研究过程中,通过查找2013~2019年的城乡收入比数据,构建时间序列预测模型对未来的发展进行预测,并结合基于我国东部、中部以及西部地区2017~2021年的泰尔指数,利用基准分析模型和门限面板回归模型结合相关发展经济学的理论及库兹涅兹提出的倒“U”型分析发现,我国城乡收入差距在波动中呈逐步扩大的趋势并体现出阶段性特征中影响城乡收入差距的因素,通过调节变量使得城乡居民收入比低于1.25。研究得出,在乡村振兴战略和数字经济持续推进的条件下,人力资本、创新活力、城镇化水平将不断提高,政府需要加大对教育科研的投入力度,以及财政农业投入占比;在农业方面引入数字化手段;出台有关政策鼓励外商在农村进行投资;经过24年我国城乡居民收入比可达到美国等OECD成员国的基本水平。

China’s urban and rural income gap is large, which affects social stability, restricts economic growth, hinders common prosperity, aggravates the uneven education resources, and affects the balance of public services. Studying the income gap between urban and rural areas in China is of great significance for promoting economic and social development, realizing common prosperity, improving social equity, optimizing policy making and maintaining social stability. Through in-depth research, it can provide scientific decision-making reference for the government and all sectors of society, promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, and achieve a more harmonious social environment. It is known that China’s rural-urban income ratio is much higher than that of the United States and other OECD member countries (below 1.25). In order to further study the development trend of China’s rural-urban income gap, this paper establishes a mathematical model to study. Combined with relevant literature data and based on time series forecasting model, the model is established and solved to predict when China can reach the basic level of urban-rural income ratio of OECD member countries. In the research process, by searching the urban-rural income ratio data from 2013 to 2019, the time series prediction model is built to forecast the future development, and the Thiel index based on the eastern, central and western regions of China from 2017 to 2021 is combined. Based on the benchmark analysis model and threshold panel regression model, combined with relevant development economics theories and the inverted “U” type analysis proposed by Kuznets, it is found that the urban-rural income gap in China shows a trend of gradual expansion in the fluctuation and reflects the factors affecting the urban-rural income gap in the phased characteristics, and the urban-rural income ratio is lower than 1.25 by adjusting variables. According to the study, under the condition of the continuous promotion of the rural revitalization strategy and the digital economy, the human capital, innovation vitality and urbanization level will continue to improve, and the government needs to increase the investment in education and research, as well as the proportion of fiscal investment in agriculture. Introducing digitalization in agriculture;introducing relevant policies to encourage foreign investment in rural areas;in 24 years, China’s urban-rural income ratio will reach the basic level of the United States and other OECD member countries.