灰色模型揭示高等学府研发经费的未来趋势

The Gray Model Reveals the Future Trend of Research and Development Funding of Universities

高等学府研发经费的投入是一个国家经济发展的根本。其重要性不仅在于人才的发展,也在于形成国家的社会文化环境。本文选取我国2004~2021年18年的国家高等学府研发经费投入的数据,运用灰色模型预测理论,建立我国高等学府研发经费投入的灰色GM (1, 1)预测模型,对我国未来的高等学府研发经费投入进行预测。结果表明,GM (1, 1)灰色预测模型有很好的预测精度和效果;同时,在灰色预测模型的框架下,高等学府的研发经费在未来几年内预计将会持续增长,显示出一种稳定积极的趋势,这表明高等学府研发经费的投入不仅对人才培养至关重要,也在塑造国家的社会文化环境方面具有重要作用。

The investment of research and development funds in institutions of higher learning is fundamental to a country’s economic development. Its importance lies not only in the development of talents, but also in the formation of the social and cultural environment of the country. This paper selects the data of R & D expenditure of China’s national institutions of higher learning from 2004 to 2021, and uses the gray model prediction theory to establish a gray GM (1, 1) prediction model of R & D expenditure of China’s institutions of higher learning, so as to predict the future R & D expenditure of China’s institutions of higher learning. The results show that the GM (1, 1) gray prediction model has good prediction accuracy and effect. At the same time, under the framework of the gray prediction model, the R&D expenditure of institutions of higher learning is expected to continue to increase in the next few years, showing a stable and positive trend, which indicates that the investment of R&D expenditure of institutions of higher learning is not only crucial for talent training, but also plays an important role in shaping the social and cultural environment of the country.