西南五省市区大学生返乡创业意愿的调查分析

A Survey and Analysis of the Intention to Return to Hometown for Entrepreneurship among College Students in Five Southwestern Provinces and Municipalities

本项调研的主题是乡村振兴与返乡创业,调查选题的确立初衷来源于2022年2月22日中央一号文件《中共中央国务院关于做好2022年全面推进乡村振兴重点工作的意见》及2021年9月国务院办公厅发布的《关于进一步支持大学生创新创业的指导意见》中针对大学生返乡创业的政策引导。本项调研的核心任务是贯彻落实习近平总书记在推动乡村人才振兴方面的重要指示精神,全面了解大学生返乡创业意愿的意愿,从而提升大学生为乡村振兴而服务的责任意识和使命担当。因此,本次调查研究旨在掌握西南五省市区包括云南省昆明市、四川省成都市、重庆市、贵州省贵阳市和广西省南宁市在校大学生返乡创业意愿的真实情况、对返乡创业政策的了解和满意程度,以及返乡创业的合理需求。为此我们制定了科学可行的调查方案,采取重点抽样 + 配额抽样的两阶段非概率抽样方式,通过滚雪球式调查方法收集调查数据。综合运用频数分析、描述分析和比较分析等统计分析方法,使用统计软件完成计算,并对数据进行了可视化绘图展示。并且我们进行构建有序Logistic回归模型、随机森林模型、结构方程模型等统计建模分析来进一步探究大学生返乡创业意愿的影响因素。本次分析得到以下结论:大学生的个人特质是返乡创业意愿的首要影响因素;大学生家庭理解和支持程度越高,返乡创业的可能性越大;创业教育优质资源不足,单个教师平均辅导学生数较高,学生受影响有限。贷款和税收优惠政策的加大和落实程度是影响大学生返乡创业意愿的主要因素。完备成熟的家乡基础设施与发展环境对大学生返乡创业意愿起到了一定的促进作用,但目前还不是主要影响因素。

The theme of this research is rural revitalization and returning home entrepreneurship, The original intention of the survey topic selection came from the Central document No. 1 on February 22, 2022, “Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and The State Council on Comprehensively Promoting the Key Work of Rural Revitalization in 2022” and the policy guidance for college students to return home and start businesses in the “Guiding Opinions on Further Supporting Innovation and Entrepreneurship of College Students” issued by The General Office of the State Council in September 2021. Therefore, the purpose of this survey is to grasp the real situation of college students in five provinces in Southwest China, including Kunming in Yunnan Province, Chengdu in Sichuan Province, Chongqing City, Guiyang in Guizhou Province and Nanning in Guangxi Province, who are willing to go back to their hometown to start a business, their understanding of and satisfaction with the policy of going back to their hometown to start a business, and their reasonable demand for going back to their hometown to start a business. Therefore, we have formulated a scientific and feasible survey plan, adopting the two-stage non-probability sampling method of key sampling + quota sampling, and collecting survey data through the snowball survey method. The statistical analysis methods, such as cross analysis, frequency analysis, description analysis and contrast analysis, are used to complete the calculation with statistical software, and the data are displayed visually. In addition, we conducted statistical modeling analysis such as the construction of ordered Logistic regression model, random forest model and structural equation model to further explore the influencing factors of college students’ willingness to return home and start businesses. The conclusion of this analysis is as follows: the personal characteristics of college students are the primary influencing factors of the willingness to return home to start a business;The higher the degree of family understanding and support, the greater the possibility of returning home to start a business;Due to the lack of high-quality resources in entrepreneurship education, the average number of students tutored by a single teacher is high, and the impact on students is limited. The increase and implementation of preferential loan and tax policies are the main factors affecting the willingness of college students to return home and start businesses. The complete and mature hometown infrastructure and development environment have played a certain role in promoting the willingness of college students to return home to start businesses, but they are not the main influencing factors at present.