数字普惠金融发展的动态演进及趋势预测研究——以长三角城市群为例

Study on the Dynamic Evolution and Trend Forecasting of Digital Inclusive Finance Development—Taking the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration as an Example

文章基于2011~2020年长三角城市群的面板数据和北京大学数字普惠金融指数,综合使用Kernel密度估计、马尔科夫链和ARIMA模型对长三角城市群数字普惠金融发展的动态研究规律和特征进行了分析,并对其未来发展趋势进行了重点预测。结果发现:1) 数字普惠金融发展呈递增趋势,具有多极化特征,却未表现出明显的右拖尾分布,表明城市群内部之间的发展差距有所缩小,但发展不均衡问题依然存在。2) 数字普惠金融发展差距有所缩小,且城市群内部之间不存在发展的“马太效应”,但短时间内想实现跨越式发展存在一定难度。因此,有必要加快推进数字普惠金融发展机制创新,驱动长三角城市群数字普惠金融协同发展。Based on the panel data of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2011 to 2020 and the Peking University Digital Inclusive Finance Index, this paper comprehensively uses Kernel density estimation, Markov chain and ARIMA model to analyze the dynamic research rules and characteristics of the development of digital inclusive finance in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, and predicts its future development trend. The results show that: 1) The development of digital financial inclusion is on the rise. This trend has the characteristics of multipolarity, but does not show a significant right trailing distribution. This indicates that the development gap between urban agglomerations has narrowed. However, the problem of uneven development still exists. 2) The gap in the development of digital inclusive finance has narrowed, and there is no “Matthew effect” of development within urban agglomerations, but it is difficult to achieve leapfrog development in a short period of time. Therefore, it is necessary to accelerate the innovation of the development mechanism of digital inclusive finance and drive the coordinated development of digital inclusive finance in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.