人口老龄化对城乡居民消费结构的影响研究

Study on the Influence of Population Aging on the Consumption Structure of Urban and Rural Residents

人口老龄化是现代经济社会发展的客观趋势,如何应对人口老龄化是我国推进现代化建设进程中必须面对和解决的重要课题。本文利用2002~2021年的人口数据训练出灰色GM(1, 1)预测模型,并对2022~2035年的人口数据进行预测,发现预计在2035年,我国65岁以上老年人口的比重将达到22.78%,远高于老龄化的社会标准;之后运用灰色关联法分析人口老龄化对城乡居民消费结构的影响差异,发现城镇老年人口更倾向于享受型消费,农村老年人口则更倾向于生存型消费,并就如何将人口老龄化的压力转化为消费市场的动力,充分利用人口规模的红利,开拓消费市场,实现资源的合理配置,进而促进我国人口老龄化与经济的协调发展提出了相关建议。Population aging is an objective tendency of modern economic and social development. How to deal with population aging is an important task that we must face and solve in China to promote modernization construction. This paper uses the population data from 2002 to 2021 to train a grey GM(1, 1) prediction model and forecasts the population data from 2022 to 2035. It is found that in 2035, the proportion of the elderly population over 65 years old in China will reach 22.78%, far higher than the standard of an aging society. After that, the gray correlation method is used to analyze the difference in the impact of the aging population on the consumption structure of urban and rural residents, and it is found that the urban elderly population is more inclined to enjoy consumption, while the rural elderly population is more inclined to subsistence consumption. The paper also puts forward suggestions on how to transform the pressure of the aging population into the driving force of the consumption market, make full use of the dividend of population size, explore the consumption market, realize the reasonable allocation of resources, and then promote the harmonious development of China’s population aging and economy.