离婚风险影响因素探究——基于女性初婚年龄视角

Exploring the Factors Influencing Divorce Risk—From the Perspective of Women’s First Marriage Age

随着离婚率的升高,婚姻问题引起社会的广泛关注,基于中国家庭追踪调查2010~2020年数据,使用治愈率模型分析离婚风险的影响因素,研究结果表明,女性初婚年龄在影响离婚风险的过程中存在显著“U”型特征,女性早婚或晚婚均会增大离婚风险;子女在一定程度上增加了离婚成本,对婚姻稳定具有积极作用。异质性研究表明,女性初婚年龄对离婚风险的影响存在地区差异,东北地区受到晚婚的影响更大。通过探究晚婚对婚姻稳定性的影响机制发现,晚婚夫妻的婚育观与价值观存在显著差异,验证了价值观念中的“不匹配效应”,该效应的存在使得离婚风险增加。基于研究结论,提出了减缓离婚风险上升的政策性建议。With the increasing divorce rate, marriage issues have aroused widespread concern in the society. Based on the data of the Chinese Family Tracking Survey from 2010 to 2020, the cure rate model was used to analyze the influencing factors of divorce risk. The research results show that the age of female first marriage has a significant “U” shape in the process of affecting divorce risk, and female early or late marriage will increase the divorce risk. Children increase the cost of divorce to some extent and have a positive effect on marital stability. The heterogeneity study shows that the influence of women’s first marriage age on divorce risk is different in different regions, and the northeast region is more affected by late marriage. By exploring the influence mechanism of late marriage on marriage stability, it is found that there are significant differences in the views and values of late marriage couples, and the “mismatch effect” in values is verified, and the existence of this effect increases the risk of divorce. Based on the conclusion of the study, some policy suggestions were put forward to mitigate the rise of divorce risk.