摘要
本文基于广东两区域动态CGE模型,模拟了不同产业投资结构下广东省2016~2030年之间能源消费与GDP的变动情况,研究发现:对于黑色金属加工业、石油化工业、纺织业、造纸业、有色金属加工业,通过限制并逐年降低其投资额度的方式,可以较大程度降低其能源消费量;对于电力热力燃气水的生产和供应业,适当减缓投资增速,便能达到较好的结果;对于交通业、矿物开采业,限制投资的效果并不明显;对于非金属矿物业,限制投资反而会适得其反。结果表明在制定投资政策时,必须考虑到不同行业对投资敏感程度的差异性,以及不同行业的能源消费与投资之间的相关程度。
Based on the dynamic CGE model of Guangdong region, this paper simulates the change of energy consumption and GDP of Guangdong Province from 2016 to 2030 under different industrial investment structure. It is found that for the ferrous metal processing industry, petrochemical industry, textile industry and paper industry, non-ferrous metal processing industry, by limiting and decreasing its investment quota year by year, can reduce its energy consumption to a large extent;for the power of thermal gas water production and supply industry, the appropriate slowdown in investment growth, will be able to achieve the better results;for the transportation industry, mineral mining industry, the effect of restricted investment is not obvious;for non-metallic mineral industry, limiting investment but will be counterproductive. Therefore, when we formulate investment policies, we must take into account the differences in the sensitivity of different industries to investment, as well as the correlation between energy consumption and investment in different industries.
出处
《可持续发展》
2017年第4期226-239,共14页
Sustainable Development
基金
国家自然基金《基于经济–技术–空间集成能源模型的电力系统低碳化路径研究》(71603248)
广东省科技厅科技计划软科学项目《城市产业转型及引导政策研究——以广东21地级市为例实证》(2015A070704038)
广东省低碳发展专项资金“结合主体功能区规划的广东省低碳发展研究”(批准号:ZHC201607)的支持。
