年轻人生育意愿及其影响因素研究

Research on Young People’s Fertility Intention and the Influencing Factors

人口问题事关国家的可持续发展,为了减轻人口老龄化带来的负担和进一步完善劳动力结构,近年来政府推出了新的生育政策。本文基于线上调查问卷所得的数据,探究年轻人的生育意愿,以及影响年轻人生育意愿的因素。本文使用描述性分析和回归分析,发现:在生育意愿方面,愿意生育小孩的受访者占比达到77.73%;没有生育意愿的受访者中,68%愿意在各方面条件改善后选择生育;受访者的意愿生育小孩个数为1.37,该数值低于“全面二孩”政策的实施出发点;实证结果显示,女性受访者相较于男性受访者的生育意愿更低;年龄越大的受访者更愿意养育小孩,同时,有过初婚的受访者的生育积极性相对更低。受访者所在地区、户籍类型的差异没有造成受访者在生育意愿上的显著差异。

Demographic problems are related to the sustainable development of our country. In order to reduce the burden of population aging and improve the structure of the labor force, the government has carried out some new policies. Based on the data of an online questionnaire, this study aims to do a research on the fertility intention of young people and then analyze the influencing factors. After using descriptive analysis and regression analysis, we found that 77.73% of the respondents in this study are willing to have children and 68% of the respondents who don’t want a child would have children in the future if they had better social and economic conditions. The average number of children the respondents would like to have is 1.37, which is lower than 2. The result of the empirical analysis shows that female respondents have lower fertility intention than male respondents and older respondents are more likely to raise children. We also found that those who never marry have higher fertility intention. The difference of respondents’ region and household type don’t cause significant difference of respondents’ fertility intention.