基于偏离份额法的就业乘数效应研究——制造业对服务业的影响

Research of Employment Multiplier Effect Based on Shift-Share Method—The Impact of Manufacture Sector on Local Service Sector

本文利用2003~2013年中国30个省份的就业面板数据,运用偏离份额法构造了由国家份额和产业结构混合而成的工具变量,估计了中国省级层面制造业就业对服务业就业的影响,并进一步讨论了就业乘数的影响因素。研究结果表明:首先,在样本考察期间,制造业行业每增加一个岗位,在其他条件不变的情况下,会给同一地区的服务业部门创造0.571个就业岗位;其次,需要高技术和高人力资本的制造业行业所产生的就业乘数效应大于低技术和低人力资本的制造业部门;再次,制造业部门的劳动需求冲击对资本密集型服务业的就业带动十分有限,而对劳动密集型服务业的就业创造具有更大的促进作用;最后,在人口规模大的地区,制造业就业对服务业就业的乘数效应显著为正,而在人口规模小的省份,制造业部门对服务业部门的就业乘数效应并不显著,甚至为负,对服务业部门的就业产生了挤出效应。

In this paper, we use the provincial employment panel data in 2003-2013 to build the econometric models and the corresponding instrument variables. Secondly, the variables used in the model are analyzed trough the methods of descriptive analysis, correlation analysis and unit root test. Moreover, the average multiplier effect of manufacturing employment on local service employment is investigated. The heterogeneity of the multiplier effect of employment is investigated under the condition of different levels of industry technology and different regional scale. Finally, the robustness test of the model is carried out. It does empirical research on the economic multiplier effect between the manufacturing employment and the service industry employment after estab-lishing an appropriate econometric model. It firstly researches the average multiplier effect of employment, then researches the heterogeneity of the multiplier effect of employment, finally it finds the technical level of industry, area size and so on which are the influencing factors to the multiplier effect of employment.