房地产开发投资对经济增长影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Real Estate Development Investment on Economic Growth

本文基于2001~2020年31个省际面板数据,运用多元线性回归模型和LSDV法研究了房地产开发投资与经济增长两者之间的关系。研究发现:1) 从总体层面来看,房地产投资对经济增长的影响是呈正相关的关系,但其影响程度对比非房地产投资以及社会消费总额小;2) 房地产投资对经济增长的影响具有突出的地方差异性,其中东部地区是显著的促进作用,中部、西部和东北地区却为反向抑制作用。对此,应该依据地区合理有效地发挥房地产投资对经济增长影响的促进作用,用高质量的房地产投资推动高质量的经济发展,转变房地产投资观念,以政府为引领实行精细化高质量发展政策,合理控制房地产投资规模。

Based on 31 provincial panel data from 2001 to 2020, this paper uses multiple linear regression model and LSDV method to study the relationship between real estate development investment and economic growth. The study found: 1) From an overall perspective, the impact of real estate investment on economic growth is positively correlated, but its impact is smaller than that of nonreal estate investment and total social consumption;2) The impact of real estate investment on economic growth has prominent local differences, in which the eastern region is a significant promoting effect, while the central, western and northeastern regions have a reverse inhibitory effect. In this regard, we should rationally and effectively play the role of real estate investment in promoting economic growth according to the region, use high-quality real estate investment to promote high-quality economic development, change the concept of real estate investment, and implement refined and high-quality development policies led by the government. Reasonably control the scale of real estate investment.