COVID-19疫情对我国区域经济的影响及空间溢出效应研究

Study on the Impact and Spatial Spillover Effects of COVID-19 Epidemic on Regional Economy in China

COVID-19疫情是对全球经济社会发展造成明显冲击的重大突发事件,中国区域经济发展也面临着全新挑战。基于我国2020年省级季度GDP及每季度新增的COVID-19确诊人数分析了COVID-19疫情冲击下区域经济变化特征,用Moran指数探讨省级经济和疫情的空间自相关特征,最后用空间动态面板数据模型实证分析了疫情对区域经济的显著抑制效应。经研究表明:疫情对我国经济的冲击较大,但我国经济发展的韧性较好,后三个季度我国区域经济逐渐复苏;COVID-19疫情对经济发展有明显的直接抑制效应,同时具有显著的负向空间溢出效应;我国省际经济具有显著正向空间溢出效应和较强韧性,这种韧性也具有正向空间溢出效应。坚持实施科学有效的防控措施是未来我国区域经济平稳健康发展的重要保障。

COVID-19 epidemic is a major health emergency with a significant impact on economic and social development globally, and China is facing new challenges in regional economic development. We analyzed the characteristics of regional economic changes under the impact of COVID-19 epidemic based on quarterly GDP at provincial level and the quarterly new confirmed cases of COVID-19, and discussed the spatial agglomeration characteristics of provincial economy and epidemic using Moran index, at last empirically studied the significant inhibitory effect of the epidemic on regional economy based on spatial dynamic models. According to the research: The epidemic had a great impact on economy of China, but China had a good toughness of economic development and the regional economy gradually recovered in the last three quarters, COVID-19 epidemic had significant direct inhibitory effect on economic development and significant negative spatial spillover effect. Provincial economy in China also had a significant positive spatial spillover effect and strong toughness, which also had positive spatial spillover effect. Therefore in China, insisting on scientific and effective prevention and control measures is an important guarantee for the steady and healthy development of the regional economy in the future.