“大气十条”与绿色全要素生产率——基于三大重点区域不同强度环境约束的实证研究

The “Ten Rules for the Atmosphere” and Green Total Factor Productivity—Empirical Study on Environmental Constraints of Different Intensity in Three Key Regions

《大气污染防治行动计划》(简称“大气十条”)明确约束了京津冀、长三角和珠三角三个重点区域细颗粒物浓度分别下降25%、20%和15%,该阶梯型的减排目标是否可以带来污染的阶梯型下降,同时带来绿色全要素生产率的阶梯型提升?为科学检验“大气十条”治理成效以及其对三个重点目标区域绿色全要素生产率的影响,本文运用双重差分法(DID)对三个重点目标区域进行实证检验。研究表明,“大气十条”确实为三个区域带来了阶梯型的污染减排,但绿色全要素生产率并未呈现阶梯型的上升,具体表现为:京津冀地区污染减排量最大,而绿色全要素生产率却相对长三角、珠三角地区有所下降。进一步的中介效应检验证明了京津冀地区严苛的环境规制抑制了地区经济效率,从而对绿色全要素生产率产生损害。基于以上研究结果,本文提出了进一步推进污染治理、提升绿色全要素生产率的政策建议。

The Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Air Pollution (referred to as the “Ten Rules for the Atmosphere”) clearly restricts the concentration of fine particles in the three key regions of Beijing Tianjin Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta to decrease by 25%, 20% and 15% respectively. Can the stepped emission reduction target bring about a step down in pollution and a step up in green total factor productivity? In order to scientifically test the effectiveness of the “Ten Rules for the Atmosphere” governance and its impact on the green total factor productivity of the three key target regions, this paper uses the difference-in-differences method (DID) to conduct an empirical test on the three key target regions. The research shows that the “Ten Rules for the Atmosphere” has indeed brought a ladder shaped pollution reduction to the three regions, but the green total factor productivity has not shown a ladder shaped rise, specifically: Beijing Tianjin Hebei region has the largest pollution reduction, while the green total factor productivity has declined relatively to the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. Further intermediary effect test proves that strict environmental regulation in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region inhibits regional economic efficiency, thus harming green total factor productivity. Based on the above research results, this paper proposes policy recommendations to further promote pollution control and improve green total factor productivity.