中国对RCEP成员国农产品出口贸易的空间格局及影响因素

Spatial Patterns and Influencing Factors of China’s Agricultural Export Trade to RCEP Member Countries

RCEP于2022年正式生效,为中国对RCEP成员国农产品的出口贸易带来了新的机遇。为探究中国对RCEP成员国农产品出口贸易的发展规律,本研究基于联合国贸易数据库的统计数据,采用空间分析、扩展引力模型,对其空间格局演变及影响因素两个方面进行了分析,结果表明:中国对RCEP成员国的农产品出口贸易多元化指数和均衡度指数呈现出稳定增长的态势,但仍有优化的空间以应对潜在的贸易风险;中国在RCEP区域的农产品出口贸易目前呈现出弱的正相关关系,显示出一定的空间集聚效应,呈现出“低低集聚”和“高高集聚”的态势;GDP总量高、与中国首都距离近、人口数量多、人均耕地面积小的RCEP成员国对中国的农产品出口贸易更加有吸引力。

RCEP officially comes into effect in 2022, which brings new opportunities for China’s export trade of agricultural products to RCEP member countries. In order to explore the development pattern of China’s agricultural export trade to RCEP member countries, this study is based on the statistical data of the United Nations Trade Database, and adopts spatial analysis and extended gravity model to analyze both the evolution of its spatial pattern and the influencing factors, and the results show that: China’s diversification index and equilibrium index of its agricultural export trade to the RCEP member countries have shown a stable growth trend, but there is still room for optimization to cope with potential trade risks;China’s agricultural export trade in the RCEP region has a weak positive correlation, showing a certain spatial agglomeration effect, with “low-low agglomeration” and “high-high agglomeration”;high GDP, close to the Chinese capital, RCEP member countries with high GDP, close distance to China’s capital, large population and small per capita arable land area are more attractive to China’s agricultural export trade.