中国天然气消费需求的影响因素分析及对策研究

Analysis of Influencing Factors and Countermeasure Research on LNG Consumption Demand in China

由于我国天然气(Liquefied Natural Gas, LNG)消费需求不确定性受到众多因素的影响,因此本文首先整理10项影响LNG消费需求不确定性的因素,再利用灰关联分析从这些影响因素中萃取重要关键因素,接着再利用TRIZ分析建立LNG消费需求发展战略。本文根据灰关联分析找出影响LNG消费需求不确定性的5项关键因素,并使用TRIZ建立11项改善策略,可归纳为三类,分别为:环保意识与教育训练策略、供给策略、以及管理优化策略,同时拟定短、中、长期三阶段战略发展先后顺序,为LNG能源产业在消费需求的发展战略提供决策支撑。

Due to the uncertainty of LNG consumption demand in China, it is affected by many factors. Therefore, this paper first sorts out 10 factors that affect the uncertainty of LNG consumption demand. Grey relational analysis is then used to extract important key factors from these influencing factors. Then, TRIZ analysis is used to establish the development strategy for LNG consumption demand. Based on grey relational analysis, this paper identifies five key factors that affect the uncertainty of LNG consumption demand, and then 11 improvement strategies are established by using TRIZ, which can be summarized into three categories: environmental awareness and education and training strategy, supply strategy, and management optimization strategy. Meanwhile, the three-stage strategic development sequence of short, medium and long-term is formulated to provide decision-making support for the development strategy of the LNG energy industry in terms of consumer demand.