基于面板分位数回归的中国海洋渔业碳汇影响因素研究

Study on the Influencing Factors of Carbon Sink in China’s Marine Fisheries Based on Panel Quantile Regression

当前,全球气候变化问题日趋严峻,碳汇渔业作为海洋渔业的重要组成部分不再仅仅是经济活动,而且是有益于环境的生态活动。以往关于海洋渔业碳汇影响因素研究大多是基于均值回归,忽视了不同分位点之间可能存在的异质效应。据此,本研究基于2006~2020年我国9个沿海省份的省际面板数据,采用物质量评估法测算不同地区的海水养殖碳汇量,使用面板分位数回归模型对我国海洋渔业碳汇的影响因素进行实证分析。研究发现海洋渔业碳汇的各影响因素对不同分位点的碳汇量表现出一致性和差异性,三个指标体系中,技术推广、渔业的产值比重和相对湿度是最主要的影响因素。据此,本研究建议充分利用各地区海洋碳汇渔业发展优势,弥补短板,重视区域协调问题,以促进海洋渔业高质量、均衡发展。

At present, the global climate change problem is becoming more and more serious. As an important part of Marine fisheries, carbon sink fishery is not only an economic activity, but also an ecological activity that is beneficial to the environment. Most of the previous studies on the influencing factors of Marine fishery carbon sink were based on mean regression, and the possible heterogeneous effects between different loci were ignored. Based on the inter-provincial panel data of nine coastal provinces in China from 2006 to 2020, we used the material quality assessment method to calculate carbon sequestration of mariculture in different regions, and used panel quantial regression model to empirically analyze the influencing factors of carbon sequestration of Marine fisheries in China. We found that the influencing factors of carbon sink in Marine fisheries showed consistency and difference in different quantile scales of carbon sink. Among the three index systems, technology extension, the proportion of output value of fishery and relative humidity were the most important factors. In order to promote the high-quality and balanced development of Marine fisheries, we proposed to make full use of the development advantages of Marine carbon sink fisheries in various regions, make up for the shortcomings, and attach importance to regional coordination.