基于风险元传递的连锁故障预测和评估

Cascading Failure Forecast and Risk Assessment Model Based on Risk Element Transfer

基于风险元传递理论研究连锁故障发展机理,预测连锁故障发展路径,对连锁故障进行风险评估。首先综合考虑了线路自身故障、潮流转移、隐性故障和天气等风险元对初始线路停运和后续线路停运的影响,建立了线路停运风险元传递模型;根据线路停运与连锁故障发生的风险元传递结构,建立了连锁故障风险元传递模型。其次,结合风险理论,建立了基于风险元传递的连锁故障预测和评估模型,预测连锁故障的发展路径,并计算连锁故障风险以及故障环节风险重要度。最后,以IEEE30节点系统的算例验证了所述方法的有效性。

Based on the risk element transfer theory, the development mechanism of cascading failures is studied, and the development path of cascading failures is predicted, and the risk assessment of cascading failures is conducted. Firstly, considering the influence of the risk factors such as the line’s own fault, the transferring power flow, hidden failure and the weather on the outage of the initial line and the subsequent outage of the line, the risk element transfer model of the outage of the line is established. Based on the risk element transfer structure of line outage and cascading failures, the risk element transfer model of cascading failures is established. Secondly, based on risk theory, the cascading failures prediction and evaluation model based on risk element transfer is established. The development path of cascading failures is predicted, and the risk of cascading failures and the importance of fault link are calculated. Finally, the simulation of IEEE 30-bus test system proves the availability of the method.