摘要
针对负荷预测精度有待提升的问题,基于不同原理进行负荷预测研究。首先进行了数据预处理,其次形成了基于LSTM的负荷预测流程,再次形成了基于ARIMA的负荷预测流程,最后进行算例分析,验证了基于LSTM的预测方法在预测该地区综合负荷方面具有更高的准确性。进一步地,分析了两种方法的优缺点,ARIMA模型计算简单,但对于复杂的非线性负荷变化难以进行准确预测;而LSTM模型则能够更好地处理复杂的非线性负荷变化,但对计算资源和训练时间要求较高。
To address the issue of improving the accuracy of load forecasting, research on load forecasting based on different principles was conducted. First, data preprocessing was performed. Secondly, a load forecasting process based on LSTM was formed, followed by a load forecasting process based on ARIMA. Finally, a case analysis was conducted, which verified that the LSTM-based prediction method has higher accuracy in predicting the comprehensive load in the region. Furthermore, the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods were analyzed. The ARIMA model has a simple calculation, but it is difficult to accurately predict complex nonlinear load changes. On the other hand, the LSTM model can better handle complex nonlinear load changes, but it requires high computing resources and training time.
