生态文明视域下县域生态–经济–社会系统耦合协调性与脆弱性研究

The Vulnerability and Coordination of the Coupling of Ecological, Economy and Society in County from the Perspective of Ecological Civilization

以2007~2016年为数据背景,以衡水市各县域为研究对象,构建生态–经济–社会系统评价指标体系,综合运用熵值法、耦合协调模型、脆弱性模型,分析研究区生态–经济–社会系统的耦合协调性与脆弱性的演化规律,运用ArcGIS对耦合协调度和生态文明指数进行空间可视化表达,并提出相关建议。结果表明:1) 2007~2016年生态–经济–社会系统的耦合度C的均值在0.7~0.8范围内,系统的耦合度整体上属于磨合阶段;耦合协调度D的均值位于[0.4, 0.5]区间内,整体上低于系统耦合度,总体上处于濒临失调阶段,并且二者的均值均呈现一定上升趋势。2) 由耦合脆弱性评价可知,武强、饶阳、武邑以重度脆弱为主;阜城、安平、深州呈现两极分化,以重度脆弱和濒临脆弱为主;枣强、故城、景县以中度脆弱和重度脆弱为主。3) 由生态文明指数与耦合协调度空间可视化分析可知,衡水市各县域的生态文明建设与复合系统的耦合协调度等级基本匹配,生态文明建设有待进一步提高。

The ecological, economic, and social data of the county from 2007 to 2016 was selected to build an ecological-economic-social evaluation index system. The entropy method, coupled coordination model, and vulnerability model were comprehensively applied to analyze the evolution of coupling coordination and vulnerability of ecological, economic, and social systems in the study area. The spatial patterns, comparison of ecological civilization level and coordination of the coupling are revealed by using the Arc GIS, and make relevant recommendations. The results show that: 1) From 2007 to 2016, the average of the coupling degree is in the range of 0.7 - 0.8, and the coupling degree of the system as a whole is the running-in phase;the average value of coupling coordination is located at [0.4, 0.5], it is lower than the degree of system coupling, and it is generally on the verge of disadvantage phase, and the average value of both shows a certain upward trend. 2) According to the evaluation of coupling vulnerability, Wuqiang, Raoyang and Wuyi are mainly severely vulnerable;Yucheng, Anping and Shenzhou are polarized, with severe vulnerability and fragility;Zaoqiang, Gucheng and Jingxian Moderately vulnerable and severely vulnerable. 3) From the spatial visualization analysis of ecological civilization index and coupling coordination degree, it can be seen that the ecological civilization construction of each county in Hengshui City and the coordination degree of the composite system are basically matched, and the ecological civilization construction needs to be further improved.