“一带一路”中巴电力合作经济性研究

Economic Research on the BRI Electricity Cooperation with Pakistan

本文采用LCOE模型分别测算了中巴电力合作的煤电、水电、风电和光伏项目的度电成本,发现只有风电在经过上网电价下调后失去经济性优势;在此基础上,使用工程项目财务评价方法计算了煤电、水电和光伏项目的内部收益率和投资回收期。最后,对巴基斯坦和印度尼西亚的电力市场投资环境进行了量化评价和对比。中巴电力合作取得巨大成功的关键因素有政策支持、保障协议、较高的上网电价和税收优惠,为中国电力企业在其他国家“走出去”提供了很好的发展经验。

This study uses LCOE model to calculate the cost of electricity coal, hydropower, wind power and photovoltaic project in power cooperation between China and Pakistan. Compared with the local FIT, it is found that electric cooperation projects have the significant economy except the wind power project losing the economy advantage after the FIT of wind power reduction. On this foundation, this study uses project financial evaluation methods to estimate the internal rate of return (IRR) and payback period coal, hydropower and wind power. Finally, the investment environment of electricity market in Pakistan and Indonesia is quantitatively evaluated and contrasted. The critical factors for the electric cooperation between China and Pakistan contain the policy support, security protocol, high FIT and tax incentives, which provides good experience for Chinese power enterprises to go global.